Please read the README file in this repository.

Table of Contents

• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • China
  • Korea, South
  • Iceland
  • Iran
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days, and exponential best fit lines
  • Confirmed
  • Dead

Missing population for Bahamas
Missing population for Diamond Princess
Missing population for Gambia
Missing population for West Bank and Gaza
Missing population for Saint Kitts and Nevis
Missing population for Kosovo
Missing population for Burma
Missing population for MS Zaandam
Missing population for Sao Tome and Principe

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(64.8 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 33.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.73 \times 10^{0.046t}\) (doubling rate \(6.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44.4}{1 + 10^{-0.076 (t - 23.3)}}\) (asimptote \(44.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,235$ on 2020-04-15

Switzerland⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $26,336$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.98 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26,610.7}{1 + 10^{-0.079 (t - 28.8)}}\) (asimptote \(26,610.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,239$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(37.1 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,365.1}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 31.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,365.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,697$ on 2020-04-15

Italy⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $165,155$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{169,429.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(169,429.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,645$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(994 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,403.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 35.7)}}\) (asimptote \(22,403.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $105,418$ on 2020-04-15

US⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $636,350$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{734,349.5}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 30.9)}}\) (asimptote \(734,349.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,326$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(355 \times 10^{0.054t}\) (doubling rate \(5.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,104.2}{1 + 10^{-0.093 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(37,104.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $555,928$ on 2020-04-15

United Kingdom⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $99,483$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.69 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{131,085.4}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(131,085.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,894$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.052t}\) (doubling rate \(5.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,082.6}{1 + 10^{-0.097 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,082.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $86,221$ on 2020-04-15

Sweden⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,927$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(387 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,321.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,321.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,203$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(29.8 \times 10^{0.049t}\) (doubling rate \(6.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,363.1}{1 + 10^{-0.096 (t - 26.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,363.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,343$ on 2020-04-15

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

China recovered 97%
Korea, South recovered 64%
Iceland recovered 41%
Iran recovered 38%
Austria recovered 37%
Switzerland recovered 32%
New Zealand recovered 30%
Uruguay recovered 28%
Thailand recovered 24%
Iraq recovered 23%
Germany recovered 20%
Taiwan* recovered 16%
Malaysia recovered 10%

China⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,356$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(4.22 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(65.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,718.5}{1 + 10^{-0.094 (t - 14.9)}}\) (asimptote \(81,718.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,346$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,292.0}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 17.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,292.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,699$ on 2020-04-15

Korea, South⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,591$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(3.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,814.6}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 14.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,814.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(30.5 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{255.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 32.2)}}\) (asimptote \(255.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,750$ on 2020-04-15

Iceland⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,727$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(141 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,808.5}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,808.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8$ on 2020-04-15

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $642$ on 2020-04-15

Iran⮸

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $76,389$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(5.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,695.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 36.6)}}\) (asimptote \(91,695.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,777$ on 2020-04-15

Best fit exponential: \(321 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,076.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,076.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,679$ on 2020-04-15

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days, and exponential best fit lines⮸

Confirmed⮸

Best fit exponential Croatia: \(0.0158 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)

Best fit exponential Switzerland: \(0.229 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.7\) days)

Best fit exponential Italy: \(0.169 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)

Best fit exponential US: \(0.0535 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.5\) days)

Best fit exponential United Kingdom: \(0.0248 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.1\) days)

Best fit exponential Sweden: \(0.0384 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Best fit exponential Croatia: \(0.000421 \times 10^{0.046t}\) (doubling rate \(6.5\) days)

Best fit exponential Switzerland: \(0.00429 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)

Best fit exponential Italy: \(0.0164 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.1\) days)

Best fit exponential US: \(0.00107 \times 10^{0.054t}\) (doubling rate \(5.6\) days)

Best fit exponential United Kingdom: \(0.0029 \times 10^{0.052t}\) (doubling rate \(5.8\) days)

Best fit exponential Sweden: \(0.00295 \times 10^{0.049t}\) (doubling rate \(6.1\) days)